By Vernon Ruttan
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Additional resources for Agriculture, Environment, and Health: Sustainable Development in the 21st Century
1972. The Limits to Growth. New York: Universe Books. , and E. Pestel. 1974. Mankind at the Turning Point. New York: Dutton. Onishi, A. 1987. Alternative futures of the world economy, 1986-2000: Policy simulations by the FUGI global macroeconomic model. In Dynamic Modeling and Control of National Economies 1986: Proceedings of the Fifth International Federation of Automatic Control/International Federation of Operations Research Societies Conference, edited by B. Martos, L. F. Pau, and M. Ziemann, Budapest, June 17-20, 1986.
If the projected demands are high, they will create a climate of doom and, perhaps, generate resolves and actions to fight it. Low demands might foster complacency. The response strategy will depend on the projected demands. In spite of the importance of future demands, very long term projections for agricultural demands are seldom made. While energy analysts and now environmentalists frequently make very long term projections (of 50 to 100 years), such projections are not available for agricultural products.
2. The Scenarios Thus we have two GDP and two population scenarios. Demand projections were made for each of these four scenarios. However, we report the results of only the two extreme scenarios since they bound the projections. These scenarios are as follows: MP-LG, medium population growth and low GDP growth, and HP-HG, high population growth and high GDP growth. Projections for Demand for Agricultural Commodities The methodology for long-term projections of demands as opposed to requirements are not well developed.